United Airlines forecasts quarterly profit well below estimates as fuel costs bite

United Airlines UAL-Q on Tuesday forecast fourth-quarter profit well below Wall Street estimates, despite expectations for record revenue, as soaring fuel costs threatened to offset gains from strong travel demand and higher ticket prices.

The Chicago-based carrier expects adjusted earnings of 50 cents to US$1.50 per share for the December quarter. LSEG data shows an average analyst estimate of US$1.76. The US$1 midpoint of the carrier’s outlook is 43 per cent below expectations.

Even strong demand and sharply higher fares have been insufficient to shield airline profits from the fuel shock. US airfares rose an average of nearly 23 per cent year-on-year in the seven months through September, government data showed.

United expects to pay US$4.80 a gallon for jet fuel in the fourth quarter, about 45 cents more than the market consensus assumption. The difference translates into roughly US$1 per share in earnings, the company said.

The carrier expects fourth-quarter revenue to grow more than 20 per cent from a year earlier, accelerating from 17.4 per cent growth in the September quarter, as demand remains strong.

Earlier this month, United’s rival Delta Air Lines cut its annual earnings forecast by nearly a quarter after projecting a US$6-billion increase in its fuel bill from last year.

Delta CEO Ed Bastian warned that airlines may need to further restrain flight growth next year to sustain higher fares and protect profitability.

US airlines spent US$42.9-billion on fuel in the first eight months of 2026, up US$13.2-billion from a year earlier despite slightly lower consumption, government data showed.

In Europe, Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary warned on Tuesday that airfares could rise as much as 20 per cent next year as high fuel costs and reduced airline capacity squeeze the industry.

United’s third-quarter fuel expense jumped 62 per cent, or US$1.85-billion, from a year earlier, even as capacity rose just 1.3 per cent.

It reported third-quarter adjusted earnings of US$2.54 per share, narrowly missing analysts’ estimate of US$2.57.

Contracted business revenue surged 26 per cent, while premium revenue grew 17 per cent and basic economy revenue increased 16 per cent, reflecting broad-based demand strength. The company will discuss its financial results in a call with analysts and investors on Wednesday morning.