The upside of a European alternative to Trumpmerica, and the limits

Why Canada should want to draw closer to Europe is obvious. So are the difficulties in doing so.

Canadian history has been shaped by the gravitational pull of the United States – and the threat that it could end our independence. Being located next to the world’s largest economy has always been a gift, but the elephant’s intentions have sometimes turned opportunity into existential danger.

Opinion: Canada wants closer EU ties. But we already have close EU ties – and they’re a mess

From the 1980s until the arrival of President Donald Trump, Ottawa operated on the assumption that we could reap the benefits of integrating closely with the U.S., without loss of sovereignty. Because the U.S. was a democratic, free-trading, norm-respecting superpower, it wasn’t an unreasonable bet.

Mr. Trump’s combination of protectionism, narcissism and imperialism has changed all that. We’ve gone from decades of welcoming more integration to Prime Minister Mark Carney talking about the clear and present danger of Washington wielding economic integration as a weapon of subjugation.

For much of Canadian history, avoiding being locked into the American orbit meant leaning into the gravity of another star. Mr. Carney is effectively proposing that role for the European Union.

There is precedent for this. Once upon a time, our alternative star was Britain.

Until well into the 20th century, it was our counterweight. The ties were cultural, military, economic and even constitutional – Canada and the other dominions were part of the British Empire, not unlike how European countries are part of the EU. The link with Britain kept Canada from being conquered in 1812 and from losing territory to the U.S. thereafter (unlike Mexico). It also fostered Confederation, to keep Canada independent of the U.S.

Britain was also once Canada’s main economic partner. Before the 1920s, exports to Britain exceeded those to the U.S., and after Washington passed the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act in 1930 exports to Britain pulled ahead again, until after the Second World War.

In the early 1960s, prime minister John Diefenbaker opposed Britain joining what would become the EU, out of fear that would further diminish our long-standing but fast-shrinking link.

Britain’s economic heft is a shadow of its former self, which is why any talk of London as a counterweight is ancient history. The EU, in contrast, is one of the world’s three superpowers – well, at least on paper.

It has a larger population than the U.S., and an economy roughly the same size. It has democratic institutions, the rule of law, high living standards, an advanced industrial base and a shortage of energy and domestic raw materials. Many of its needs line up with Canada’s assets, and vice versa.

The EU is already Canada’s second largest trading partner. However, its share of our trade is far below Britain’s a century ago. In 2025, Canada exported $67.7-billion in goods and services to the EU, compared to $683.3-billion to the U.S. Imports from the EU were worth $110.6-billion – less than one-fifth the value of American imports.

Europe is also Canada’s second biggest direct foreign investor, but U.S. investment here is three times as large.

It makes sense to try to get closer to Europe on trade, investment and security, and in fields that engage all three, such as AI, space and defence procurement. The global roster of economically large, technologically advanced, like-minded partners is short, and the EU is clearly at the top of the list.

The challenge is that the EU isn’t a United States of Europe. It has many of the attributes of a state, with common rules, laws and a central bureaucracy. But it’s more of a loose confederation of 27 states, each of which has pooled some sovereignty while still retaining a lot. There’s no EU army, and there really isn’t a common EU foreign policy.

There are also deep divisions among EU countries, and within them.

That’s how we ended up with a trade agreement that comes with an asterisk. The Canada-European Union Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) was signed a decade ago, and is provisionally applied, but 10 EU countries have not yet ratified it.

Opinion: Canada’s bet on European trade faces plenty of hurdles

Getting closer to Europe will partly, and perhaps mostly, need to happen bilaterally, through talks with national governments. Canada joined Security Action for Europe (SAFE), a financial program to build up the continent’s defence industrial base – but a planned Canadian purchase of new submarines from Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems involves negotiations with Germany and Norway.

Mr. Carney’s recent meetings with the heads of government of France and Norway (the latter not a full EU member, but with one foot in the club) underline how European countries continue to run their own foreign policies, and much besides. Despite being a long-standing champion of a stronger EU, France retains sole control over the EU’s only nuclear weapons. Paris developed and maintains these independently of the U.S., unlike Britain, whose nuclear arsenal is dependent on U.S. technology and support.

Washington may one day come back to its senses, as has happened in the past. That will make any closer level of co-operation with Europe an addition to American ties, rather than an alternative.

Either way, an insurance policy against a U.S. that has turned threatening is badly needed. This new reality is really nothing new. It is the oldest story in Canadian history.