CFL division finals picks: Bombers expected to wait before naming starting QB

Head coach Mike O’Shea knows the Winnipeg Blue Bombers will be in Montreal on Saturday playing in the East Division final.

Who will be his starting quarterback, though, is an entirely different matter.

Dru Brown orchestrated last weekend’s 25-22 East semi-final win over the Toronto Argonauts. Brown hit Nic Demski on a 23-yard TD pass with 44 seconds remaining, then found Demski for the two-point conversion.

Zach Collaros didn’t suit up due to a rib injury suffered in Winnipeg’s playoff-clinching 34-10 win over B.C. on Oct. 23. Brown replaced Collaros and went 11 of 11 passing for 185 yards and two TDs as the Bombers outscored the Lions 24-0 in the fourth quarter.

Winnipeg didn’t confirm Brown would start the East semi-final until releasing its depth chart the day before the game. The expectation is the same will happen this week.

Winnipeg will face a rested Montreal squad that hasn’t played since a 33-16 road win over Toronto on Oct. 23. Quarterback Davis Alexander’s last start was a 44-24 win over Saskatchewan on Oct. 12, a game where he threw for 403 yards with five TDs and an interception while rushing three times for 40 yards.

Dustin Crum started both of Montreal’s final regular-season games, with Caleb Evans playing the second half of the regular-season finale in Toronto.

The win over Saskatchewan was also the last time Canadian Tyson Philpot and Tyler Snead – who finished 1-2 among CFL receivers – both started. Montreal and Winnipeg split their season series 1-1, with each winning at home.

The Alouettes were 9-0 during the regular season at Molson Stadium.

Alexander threw for 697 yards with five TDs against Winnipeg while completing 70.4 per cent of his passes.

Philpot and Snead were both key figures against the Bombers. Philpot registered 18 catches for 294 yards and a TD while Snead had 14 receptions for 224 yards and three touchdowns.

Alexander and Philpot are finalists for the CFL’s outstanding player award, along with Edmonton quarterback Cody Fajardo. Philpot is also up for the top Canadian honour.

Winnipeg’s Brady Oliveira rushed for 95 yards on 20 carries last week in Toronto. The CFL rushing leader (1,493 yards, 6.3-yard average) ran for 150 yards on 25 carries (six-yard average) and a TD against Montreal.

Ontaria Wilson was Winnipeg’s leading receiver against Montreal with 14 catches for 223 yards and three TDs. The Bombers were 5-3 against East Division teams and 4-4 during the regular season on the road.

Pick: Montreal

B.C. Lions vs. Edmonton Elks (Saturday afternoon)

At Edmonton, the Elks are in the playoffs for the first time since 2019 and host their first postseason contest in 11 years. They split their season series with B.C. 1-1, with each team winning at home.

Edmonton was 8-1 at Commonwealth Stadium this season while B.C. was 4-5 on the road.

Nathan Rourke threw for 320 yards with a TD and two interceptions in B.C.’s 36-24 win over Edmonton on July 4. But he was injured in the Elks’ 19-17 win on July 17 as Chase Brice finished 20 of 34 passing for 226 yards with a TD and four interceptions.

Last week, Rourke had 366 passing yards and three TDs in the Lions’ 33-26 victory over the defending-champion Saskatchewan Roughriders.

Keon Hatcher registered nine receptions for 175 yards and a TD against Edmonton, while defensive back Jackson Findlay had 13 tackles and an interception.

Edmonton’s defence should provide a stout test. The Elks led the CFL in fewest offensive points allowed (23.6 per game), offensive yards (338.6), most interceptions (27) and fumble recoveries (15) and were second against the pass (272.7 yards) and run (81.4).

B.C.’s unit was the stingiest against the run (71.3 yards per game) and second in fewest net offensive yards allowed (355.2).

The veteran Fajardo has been a key figure for the resurgent Elks, having amassed a career-high 4,788 passing yards and 25 touchdowns. He also ran for 517 yards and eight touchdowns.

Fajardo completed 69.3 per cent of his passes against B.C. for 677 yards and four TDs. Austin Mack was Fajardo’s favourite receiver against the Lions with 12 catches for 180 yards (15-yard average) and a touchdown.

Justin Rankin was the CFL’s second-leading rusher this season (1,170 yards, 5.7-yard average). But he ran for just 28 yards on 14 carries in the two games against B.C.

Rankin added 16 catches for 146 yards, giving him 174 scrimmage yards from 30 touches.

The ground game is important for both offences. Edmonton was tops in the CFL (127.6 rushing yards per game), with B.C. (118.7) second overall.

Pick: B.C.

Last week: 1-1

Overall: 54-29