Business Brief: Mark your calendars

Morning. Not gonna lie: I was kind of hoping this whole trade war thing would be sorted by the time I got back from vacation. And it nearly was! Alas. In focus today, we look at what comes next.

Up first

In the news

Manufacturing: Auto parts shares slide as industry warns of tariff disruptions.

Geopolitics: U.S. tells countries to cut economic ties with Iran or face retaliation.

Trade: Why Mexico’s Sheinbaum is staying on the sidelines of the Canada-U.S. trade war.

In focus

A calendar for chaotic times

There is a lot of noise around the trade war. It’s hard not to notice when the President of the United States is calling Canada “among the worst Nations in the World to deal with” on trade, and the Premier of Ontario is telling Donald Trump to “kiss my ass.”

But even as the rhetoric builds to something resembling a Black Friday battle at an American Walmart, none of it is really all that new.

Of course, we wouldn’t blame anyone for watching every second of America’s experiment with chaos as a governing ethos, but you could also just stake out a few points on your calendar and live out your life in the meantime.

Here are a few dates to watch:

• Aug. 22: If only for the benefit of my vacation brain (it took me 72 minutes to figure out how to log onto this computer), we’ll start by turning the calendar back a few days. After trade negotiations collapsed, Trump’s newest tariffs on $30-billion worth of Canadian goods went into effect. Prime Minister Mark Carney said Canada would retaliate “dollar for dollar.”
• Aug. 24: Yesterday, Trump took to social media to announce the U.S. would double auto tariffs from 25 to 50 per cent as of Jan. 1, and that they would apply to cars, trucks and auto parts. Carney said a new trade deal remains possible, but backed away from the dollar-matching idea in favour of more targeted retaliation.
• Aug. 31: Three by-elections will offer an early test of the Liberals’ political standing before Parliament returns this fall. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer suggested that Canada’s decision was influenced by political concerns, but the Liberals are already favoured to pick up at least two of the seats. It’s unlikely these votes factored into the decision-making, but blaming Canada is always convenient.
• Sept. 8: Canada’s planned retaliatory tariffs are set to take effect unless the two sides return to the table. The government has yet to release any details of what products will be targeted, reviving a debate over how a country can retaliate against an economic powerhouse without shooting itself in the foot.
• Sept. 14 and 15: The stakes will be even higher for Carney’s Canada Investment Summit, which will bring together the world’s largest money managers. A deal between the two countries would have given the high-powered room more clarity on Canada’s economic outlook. Instead, James Bradshaw reports Canadian political leaders and executives will be fielding tough questions from powerful people.
• Nov. 3: The GOP is facing a difficult fight to protect its congressional majorities in the midterms, and tariffs could complicate some key races. But anyone hoping for policy-driven change might be looking far beyond this calendar’s scope. Even if Democrats were to seize control of Congress, they would be hard-pressed to find enough Republican support to override a Trump veto and roll back the tariffs.
• Jan. 1: Trump’s threatened 50-per-cent tariffs on Canadian vehicles and auto parts are scheduled to take effect.
• Jan. 3: The new Congress takes office, potentially changing the political balance. Trump will still be president.
• Beyond: All of these dates might be best viewed as battles with near-term consequences. The wider war might be harder for Canada to contest, Andrew Coyne writes.

Charted

It’s not my fault that these look like middle fingers, but perhaps they’re fitting: Most Canadian companies don’t expect artificial intelligence to significantly affect employment, a recent Bank of Canada survey suggests. Nearly 79 per cent of firms said AI would have no material impact on staffing levels over the next year. Even three years out, roughly two-thirds don’t expect AI to meaningfully affect their staffing levels. (I’m still going to keep up with my typing exercises.)

Quoted

‘Loneliness influencers’ are encouraging their audiences to embrace solitude.

Up next

More files we’re following

Before the bell: Earnings season for Canada’s Big Six banks begins this morning with results from Scotiabank and BMO. National Bank reports tomorrow, followed by RBC, TD and CIBC on Thursday.

Before first pitch: With 30 games left in the regular season, the Toronto Blue Jays sit 1.5 games out of the final American League wild-card berth. A three-game series against the Kansas City Royals begins tonight at Rogers Centre.

Morning update

Global markets climbed as investors took comfort in a softer-than-feared U.S. sanctions package against Iran and turned attention to tomorrow’s results from ⁠the world’s ​most valuable company, Nvidia.

Wall Street futures were in positive territory, while TSX futures followed sentiment higher.

Overseas, the pan-European STOXX 600 was up 0.49 per cent in morning trading. Britain’s FTSE 100 rose 0.12 per cent, Germany’s DAX gained 0.8 per cent and France’s CAC 40 advanced 0.4 per cent.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei closed 0.5 per cent higher, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng edged down 0.02 per cent.

The Canadian dollar traded at 72.16 U.S. cents.