What trade war? Suddenly, Canadian consumers are looking healthier than U.S. shoppers

Canadian shoppers should have every reason to feel shell-shocked by what’s going on in the economy around them: soaring gasoline prices, job uncertainty and a trade war that gets grimmer, and weirder, by the week.

Yet for all those negative forces that might cause consumers to hunker down, there are growing signs that Canadians are feeling more confident at the till than their U.S. counterparts.

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Walmart Inc. WMT-Q recently delivered a stark warning that all might not be well with the American consumer when it reported the slowest growth in comparable U.S. store sales in six years – a measure of sales at stores open at least a year. And when measured by the year-over-year change in net sales at Walmart’s U.S. stores, revenue growth has been slowing for a year.

North of the border, its a different story. During the last three quarters, Walmart Canada’s WMT-T annual net sales, which the retailer breaks out in its financials, have grown faster than sales at its U.S. stores. The last time Canadian shoppers outspent Americans at Walmart was in the first quarter of 2023, according to the company’s financial reports.

A very similar pattern has been playing out at Costco Wholesale Corp., COST-Q which also breaks out sales for its stores in Canada and the U.S. After trailing the U.S. through all of fiscal 2025, Costco’s Canadian stores have grown faster during the first three quarters of fiscal 2026.

The Canadian consumer is shining through in other areas, too. In August, new vehicle sales in Canada climbed 5.4 per cent compared to the year before, signalling that “household demand is holding up amid the reignited trade war with the U.S.,” Erik Johnson, senior economist with Bank of Montreal, said in a note.

By comparison, U.S. vehicle sales eked out a 1.3-per-cent gain over the same period.

Given the continued headwinds facing Canada’s economy, it’s unclear how long the consumer resilience can last. Indeed, the next few months could mark the end. A recent advance estimate for retail sales in July from Statistics Canada showed a 0.8-per cent-decrease, the first decline after seven months of gains.

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