We don’t need an independent Alberta. We need to keep AIMCo independent

It’s too soon to breathe easy on Alberta secession.

Sure, the referendum’s preliminary results show that some 75 per cent of Albertans voted to remain in Canada. But the proportion of people who signalled they favour a binding vote on separation – roughly 25 per cent – is significant.

This is hardly a resounding endorsement of Canadian unity. Federalists who assume they won and dismiss the concerns of Alberta separatists are making a big, fat mistake. The fallout from this historic vote will be felt for years. Secessionist leaders have explicitly said they plan to use this meaningful denouncement of Canada as leverage to agitate for change.

That brings us to the Alberta Investment Management Corp., or AIMCo, which is a sitting duck for renewed political interference in light of the referendum result. The Edmonton-based institutional investment manager is part of the “Maple 8″ group of public pension fund managers and Alberta’s Crown jewel.

Owned by the provincial government, AIMCo had $210.7-billion in assets under management as of June 30. Its clients include the Alberta Heritage Savings Trust, a $32-billion public wealth fund created to reinvest some of the province’s resource revenues.

Why is AIMCo at risk of more meddling by Premier Danielle Smith? The answer is rooted in past precedent and political pragmatism.

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Nearly two years ago, Ms. Smith sent shock waves across the investment world by sacking AIMCo’s entire board and its CEO ostensibly to reset its focus, impinging on the pension fund’s independence from government.

Ms. Smith has also previously pushed for Alberta to leave the Canada Pension Plan (CPP) and set up its own provincial plan, eyeing AIMCo as its possible manager.

Although the Alberta Pension Plan question never made it on to the referendum ballot, this is an opportune time for separatists to raise the issue again.

After all, the No. 2 recommendation of the Alberta Next Panel, an advisory group chaired by Ms. Smith, was for the provincial government to put a referendum question to voters about whether Alberta should exit the CPP and replace it with a provincial pension scheme that provides “the same or better pension benefits” for seniors at similar or lower premiums for workers.

“Prior to a referendum on this topic being held, the government should provide Albertans with more information on the advantages and risks associated with taking this course of action,” stated the panel’s report.

Ms. Smith could find herself under pressure to do just that, a move that would reignite a fractious debate about the amount potentially owed to Alberta if it ever withdrew from the CPP.

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The idea is far from dead within the ruling United Conservative Party. In March, MLA Tany Yao said it would be “responsible and prudent” to revisit the idea of a provincial pension plan, according to a report by The Canadian Press. Mr. Yao argued it was about “fairness and opportunity” for Albertans because financial and administrative power is centred in Ottawa.

Ms. Smith, meanwhile, has spent months indulging separatists. Her catchphrase – “sovereign Alberta within a united Canada” – is a nod to their cause.

Now, some leaders of the separatist movement are plainly saying that Ms. Smith needs to fall in line if she wants to keep her job. Their political program, it seems, is entering “an institutional phase.”

That suggests taking control of the UPC is merely a prelude to other political pursuits.

“Tonight concludes a campaign but the conversation about Alberta’s future in Canada, and our place in Canada, and our role in Canada will continue,” Keith Wilson, one of the leaders of the Let Alberta Decide campaign, told journalists, adding the objective is to “unleash the power of this province, the wealth of this province.”

Every Canadian should be worried about what that might entail.

In fairness to Ms. Smith, her government made a prudent move regarding AIMCo ahead of the referendum. An order-in-council, dated Sept. 3, wisely reappointed former prime minister Stephen Harper as chair of AIMCo’s board of directors, extending his term until Nov. 19, 2028.

Mr. Harper has the gravitas to push back on political intrusions at AIMCo, especially since he was appointed to fortify its governance. His own record as prime minister, which included negotiating trade deals for Canada with the European Union and Pacific Rim countries, supports AIMCo’s global investment philosophy. (In 2025, 40.2 per cent of its assets were in Canada.)

Still, the risk of renewed political interference at AIMCo looms large, especially if Ms. Smith finds it politically expedient to placate separatists.

Federalists need to put down their pom-poms and pay attention to the political parlance from aggrieved Albertans. When a quarter of voters endorse a path to independence, their push for sovereignty is far from done.