Trump is threatening Putin with a tighter ceasefire deadline. Russia is shrugging

After U.S. President Donald Trump announced that he was moving up the deadline for Russia to agree to a ceasefire in Ukraine from 50 days to as few as 10, he was pressed for specifics during a lengthy news conference in Turnberry, Scotland.

While he repeated his growing frustration with Vladimir Putin’s escalating attacks on Ukraine, and suggested that sanctions and secondary tariffs could be forthcoming, there were few details. 

The response from Moscow? Little more than a shrug. 

State media barely covered the development, and the reaction on social media amounted to a rejection of Trump’s ultimatum and skepticism that he would follow through. 

In a post on Telegram, Andrey Gurulyov, a member of Russia’s State Duma and a former army officer, called Trump’s announcement a “fresh statement, with the same old pomp,” which “no longer works.”

Trump “may be disappointed with Russia — but, sorry, we never charmed him.”

“We don’t bet on Trump, just as we didn’t bet on Biden. We bet on ourselves.”

‘Why wait?’

The posturing of Russian officials indicates what Trump has already hinted at: Putin is not about to agree to a ceasefire. 

Efforts to try to entice Russia to agree to a temporary truce haven’t worked, so Trump is wielding an ultimatum instead. 

During his meandering availability with the media in Scotland, where Trump was visiting his golf courses and squeezing in bilateral meetings, the president said it made sense to move up the deadline because there was no point in prolonging it. 

“If you know what the answer is going to be, why wait? ” he said.

While Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has applauded Trump’s latest move, calling it “a clear message of peace through strength,” it is not at all clear what Trump is prepared to do when the deadline passes. 

Is the U.S. willing to exert significant leverage over Russia by going after its key energy customers, including China, at a time when Washington is engaged in its own trade negotiations with Beijing?

Secondary sanctions

A bipartisan group of senators has been pushing for secondary sanctions of 500 per cent for those who import Russian oil, gas, uranium and other products. And earlier this month, Trump talked about a 100 per cent tariff, but on Monday when he was asked if that was still the number, he didn’t answer the question. 

“It is clear that Trump is fed up with the situation [in Ukraine], but his leverage on Putin is limited,” said Alexandra Prokopenko, a former advisor at the Bank of Russia and now a fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin.

Prokopenko, who spoke to CBC News through a messaging app, believes there is only so much pressure that Washington will be able to put on China given its own months-long trade war. 

China’s imports of Russian oil have surged since 2022, as global sanctions have meant it often trades at a discount. Russia makes up more than 20 per cent of China’s crude imports.

India is Russia’s biggest buyer of oil, and Turkey, a NATO member, also remains a significant customer.

Prokopenko believes that not only would it be hard for the U.S. to effectively punish these nations through secondary tariffs, but also any measures to curb Russian crude exports would disrupt global oil supply and likely drive up prices, which would be passed onto consumers. 

Kremlin notes the new deadline

On Monday, Trump said that he wouldn’t want to do anything to hurt the Russian economy and hoped that Moscow might still decide to make a deal, but the U.S. president said he isn’t interested in “talking anymore” given that Putin continues to launch attacks against Ukrainian cities, killing people.

Dmitry Peskov, the spokesperson for the Kremlin, said he noted Trump’s latest comments, adding that there has been a slowdown in efforts to improve relations between Washington and Moscow. 

Anna Matveeva, a visiting senior research fellow at the Russia Institute at King’s College London, believes the Kremlin likely finds Trump’s growing frustration “regrettable” but says it won’t change Moscow’s actions on the battlefield. On Tuesday, the country’s Ministry of Defence claimed it had taken over two settlements in the eastern part of Ukraine.

Matveeva, who was in Russia in the spring, says Moscow is almost certainly preparing for a scenario of secondary sanctions, but she believes that Trump’s decision to move up the deadline won’t entice the Kremlin to negotiate. 

“Russian leaders respond to [threats] very badly,” she said. 

She says that to them it looks like Trump is projecting himself as the “global daddy,” who is “telling unruly children how to behave.”