Road through Western Conference to Stanley Cup final is ‘war of attrition’

Five of the top eight teams in the NHL this season play in the Western Conference. Two of them must face off in a first-round showdown between Dallas and Colorado.

Presidents’ Trophy-winning Winnipeg has its own demons to slay, from elite goaltender Connor Hellebuyck on out, to get over the playoff hump that has been a recent roadblock. Defending West champion Edmonton is banged up going into a fourth consecutive opening series against Los Angeles. And don’t forget about Vegas, just two years removed from winning the Stanley Cup and looking as imposing as ever.

The path through the West is a brutal one, though the tests along the way could be fit for a champion.

“It’s a war of attrition,” said six-time Cup champion and Hall of Famer Mark Messier, now an ESPN analyst. “For any team that’s going to come through the West this year, they’re going to have to be a big, strong team that can withstand that kind of not only physical stress but the emotional stress because we know the games are going to be close.”

Teams to beat

The Jets had the best regular season, but the Stars are 3-1 favourites to come out of the West, according to BetMGM Sportsbook. Next up are the Avalanche, likely getting Gabriel Landeskog back for the first time since he captained them to the Cup three years ago, even though the Central Division rivals ranked fourth and eighth in the league are locked into playing each other because of the playoff format.

“It certainly makes it difficult, but that’s the road that we have,” Colorado head coach Jared Bednar said. “We finished where we finished, they finished where they are, playing a really good team, one of the top teams in the league right away.”

This was always the punishment for whoever didn’t win the Central, and Winnipeg gets to start against wild-card St. Louis instead. Avalanche-Stars is another animal.

“We played them last year in the second round, so back at it again this year,” Stars general manager Jim Nill said. “Our attitude is if you’re going to win it, you’ve got to beat all the good teams, so it doesn’t matter. They’re a good team, and it’s going to be a battle.”

The Golden Knights have been through the gauntlet and come out the other side, winning the Cup in 2023. The guy who was their playoff MVP then has since left for Nashville but still thinks Vegas can make a long run.

“I don’t see anyone stopping them until the top four,” Jonathan Marchessault said. “I think they’re going to get out of their division. It’s going to be a pretty good battle against the Central Division. I think there are three really good teams. I follow them and am going to cheer for them, for sure.”

Underdogs

The Kings have gotten knocked out by the Oilers each of the past three years. They have home-ice advantage this time against Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Edmonton, which will be missing top defenceman Mattias Ekholm for at least the first round because of injury.

The West wild cards came down to the tail end of the regular season to determine, with Minnesota coming back in its final game to clinch the first spot and a matchup against Vegas. The Blues got in as the eighth seed and faces Winnipeg in the first round.

“I’m excited for guys to experience it that haven’t experienced it before,” St. Louis captain Brayden Schenn said. “This locker room, some young guys have been champing at the bit to get that feeling. And it’s important. That’s how you build a winning culture. That’s how you build a winning mindset.”

Storylines

The Colorado-Dallas series is even more tantalizing after the Avalanche traded longtime star winger Mikko Rantanen to Carolina in late January only to see him boomerang back to the Central when the Hurricanes sent him to the Stars at the trade deadline.

“To see him and play him in the first round? That’s probably not what the Avalanche were thinking when they tried to send him out East,” said retired player Anson Carter, now a TNT analyst. “That series is going to be crazy.”

Colorado’s Logan O’Connor, who won it all alongside Rantanen in 2022, called it a “no-friends-on-the-ice type thing.”

“We obviously all respect him as a player, a great friend to a lot of us,” O’Connor said. “Tons of good things to say about him, but I think the second that puck drops, it sort of goes out the window for the time being. We all have got a job to do in here, and he’s in the way of that.”

There’s also McDavid and Draisaitl’s collective pursuit of their first championship after losing to Florida in Game 7 last year after erasing a 3-0 series deficit. The Oilers and Jets have the chance to end Canada’s Cup drought that dates to 1993.

Predictions

1st round

• Colorado beats Dallas in 7 games
• Winnipeg beats St. Louis in 6
• Vegas sweeps Minnesota in 4
• Los Angeles beats Edmonton in 6

2nd round

• Colorado beats Winnipeg in 6
• Vegas beats Los Angeles in 5

Conference final

• Colorado beats Vegas in 7

“The West is stacked,” Avalanche winger Miles Wood said. “But we’re a stacked team, as well.”