Past performance is no longer enough: Experience alone doesn’t predict leadership success

Claudine Albert and Mike James Ross are consultants and Alexandre H. Suissa is an expert at Egon Zehnder in Montreal.

By almost every traditional measure, the candidate seems ideal. They have led a business of comparable size. They know the industry. Their track record is strong, their references are glowing and their résumé reflects a steady progression through increasingly senior roles. Yet after all of the interviews, meetings with the board and the press release announcing their appointment, they turn out not to be the right leader for the role.

Leadership appointments can disappoint with surprising frequency. Boards and CEOs continue to find that executives who appeared perfectly qualified on paper struggle to succeed in their new role or organization.

The reason is simple, and yet also oh so complicated: experience and past performance are not perfect predictors of future success. And it’s getting worse. As organizations grapple with technological disruption, shifting customer expectations and growing economic uncertainty, many are struggling with how to identify the leadership talent needed to respond to these challenges. The problem is that the question is no longer just “Has this person done the job before?” Rather, it is becoming “Can this person grow into what the role will need?

Why experience is becoming less predictive

For decades, executive hiring followed a straightforward formula: find someone who had successfully performed a similar role and give them the opportunity to do it again. That approach made sense when industries evolved gradually and leadership challenges changed at a predictable pace, however, as we wrote in a recent column, clinging to the past slows progress. Leaders must build a no-nostalgia culture because today’s environment is different. Technology is reshaping business models. Competitive advantages are shorter-lived. Leaders are increasingly expected to navigate situations for which there is no established playbook.

Experience remains valuable of course, but it is no longer sufficient. Many executives are stepping into roles whose requirements bear little resemblance to what those same positions required only a few years ago. Success increasingly depends on an individual’s ability to learn quickly, adapt to changing circumstances and lead others through uncertainty. The leaders best equipped for the future are not always those with the most relevant experience. Often, they are the ones who can learn and evolve the fastest.

Performance, readiness and potential are not the same thing

One of the most common mistakes organizations make is treating performance, readiness and potential as though they are interchangeable. They are not. Performance reflects what an individual has accomplished to date. Readiness reflects whether that individual can step into a larger role today. Potential is something different. It reflects a person’s capacity to grow and the pace at which they are able to adapt and succeed as responsibilities become more complex.

A high-performing executive is not necessarily a high-potential executive. Someone who appears ready today may not be the person best positioned to thrive as the role evolves. Organizations that focus exclusively on performance also risk overlooking leaders with exceptional future capacity, as they may overestimate individuals whose success has been closely tied to a particular context, team or business environment. The most consequential leadership decisions require understanding both what a leader has achieved and how much further they can grow.

Looking beyond the résumé

One way to measure potential is to look at the characteristics that distinguish leaders who continue to grow as challenges increase in complexity:

• Curiosity is a genuine desire to learn, seek new experiences and challenge assumptions. Curious leaders actively expose themselves to unfamiliar situations, remain open to changing their views when presented with new information and stay agile in the face of change. They are typically self-reflective, receptive to feedback and willing to adapt their approach as circumstances evolve.
• Insight is the inclination to make sense of complexity, identify patterns and draw connections others may miss. Insightful leaders simplify ambiguity, anticipate second-order consequences and generate fresh perspectives. This enables them to innovate, solve increasingly complex problems and navigate scale effectively.
• Engagement is the willingness and ability to build relationships, inspire others and mobilize people around a common goal. These leaders influence both hearts and minds. They build trust quickly, create followership across organizational boundaries and unite people behind a shared purpose in both stable and challenging times.
• Determination is the resilience and drive to persevere through setbacks while continuing to grow and develop. Rather than being discouraged by adversity, determined leaders are energized by challenges and move forward with focus and persistence.

These markers rarely appear on a résumé, yet they often establish whether a leader succeeds when faced with challenges they have never encountered before. Identifying potential requires a broader lens than credentials, track record or experience alone and organizations can gain richer insight by exploring the motivations behind both major accomplishments and everyday choices: what drives someone to learn, why they step into uncertainty and how they respond when faced with setbacks.

Understanding not only what leaders do, but why they do it, can provide powerful clues about their capacity for future growth. Often, it is the motivations underlying behaviour rather than the behaviour itself that offer the clearest window into long-term potential.

The leaders who grow into the role

Many successful chief executives had never served as CEO before their appointment. Others stepped into roles that required them to lead in unfamiliar industries, functions or geographies. What enabled them to succeed was not a perfect match between their experience and the role’s requirements. Rather, it was their desire to learn, adapt and grow alongside the demands of the position.

These appointments are often viewed as bold bets by boards. In reality, they may reflect a different understanding of leadership success: not simply evidence of past achievement, but indicators of future capacity.

A new lens for succession

In an environment where leadership requirements evolve faster than ever, organizations cannot afford to think of succession as a replacement exercise. It is a development process. Understanding potential helps leaders make better investment decisions about where to focus coaching, feedback and stretch assignments. Those with the motivation to learn, innovate, influence and overcome often build readiness faster than experience alone would suggest, allowing organizations to develop tomorrow’s leaders before the need becomes urgent.

The future rarely rewards those who have simply done the job before. More often, it rewards those who can become what the job requires next.

This column is part of Globe Careers’ Leadership Lab series, where executives and experts share their views and advice about the world of work. Find all Leadership Lab stories at tgam.ca/leadershiplab.