Learning from Singapore: Why Alberta separation is a bad idea

Eric Miller is president of Rideau Potomac Strategy Group and fellow at the Canadian Global Affairs Institute

On Oct. 19, Albertans will vote on whether they wish to pursue separation from Canada.

If “Option 2” – supporting a binding referendum on separation – is adopted, Alberta will enter a supremely consequential period. While pro-Leave politicians sell a golden post independence future, the reality in such referendums is often very different.

The most recent example of the kind of break Alberta is contemplating is Brexit – when Britain voted in 2016 to leave the European Union. It finally exited in 2020.

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A decade on, data analytics firm YouGov found a majority of Brits feel Brexit was a mistake (57 per cent to 30 per cent). This is hardly surprising. The benefits have been minimal and the costs staggering.

A November, 2025, paper, lead-authored by Nicholas Bloom of Stanford University and the Bank of England’s Philip Bunn calculated that since Brexit, Britain’s GDP fell by an estimated 6 to 8 per cent, business investment was down 12 to 18 per cent, and employment declined by 3 to 4 per cent.

These are the stark consequences of separating from a larger, closely-knit economic area. There is no reason to believe that an Alberta separation from Canada would avoid similar declines.

Taking a longer time horizon, Singapore offers an interesting example. Once the heart of the British Empire in Southeast Asia, in 1963, Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew took Singapore into federation with Malaysia, in part, to protect its long-standing commercial ties.

Just two years later, in 1965, Singapore was cast out from the federation. On the day of separation, Mr. Lee cried on national television for the loss of these ties and, perhaps, for the economic uncertainty ahead.

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Nevertheless, he and his government figured out how to survive and then thrive. They built Singapore into one of the wealthiest countries in the world.

Is Singapore’s success an example of what is possible for an independent Alberta? That seems unlikely. The Singapore experience offers at least four critical contrasts to present-day Alberta.

First, Singapore was pushed out of Malaysia. It did not seek to leave. Being expelled created a sense of unity that visionary leaders could convert into a shared national project.

If Alberta leaves Canada, it would be entirely by choice and against the objections of many. The result would be further political polarization within the province – hardly conducive to building a shared national project.

Second, Singapore has superb geography, including one of the world’s best seaports. Repeated studies have shown that landlocked countries, as Alberta would become, tend to be poorer because trade costs are higher. All G20 countries have access to tidewater.

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An independent Alberta would undoubtedly seek to sell more oil to the world.

Great, but how would it get to market?

British Columbia has long been ambivalent about adding new pipeline and oil export capacity. The federal government has often played a constructive role in managing these concerns.

In 2018, Ottawa bought the Trans-Mountain pipeline twinning project and got it into operation. It would likewise be central to getting the proposed Pacific Link pipeline over the line. Neither the federal government nor B.C. would have much incentive to help Alberta if it were not part of Canada.

As for the “southern” route, yes, the Trump administration is pro-oil and gas, but the Obama and Biden administrations were very hostile. The Keystone XL pipeline experience should give pause to anyone basing their future on U.S. support.

Third, Singapore came of age in an international environment somewhat friendlier to small countries. While it worked doggedly to build up its relevance, young Singapore did not face the challenge of two great powers (United States and China) trying to remake the world order.

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We live in a world where scale matters. U.S. President Donald Trump, ever the negotiator, would likely seek significant concessions from Alberta. With 42 million people, Canada is large enough to resist “unhelpful” demands. Alberta, with just over five million people, may struggle.

Fourth, Singapore understood that to be a leading economic hub, one needs to allow workers into the country. Today, approximately 40 per cent of Singapore’s work force consists of non-resident foreign workers.

By contrast, four of the 10 questions Alberta’s referendum asks are about the province restricting or disincentivizing immigration. If smaller countries are to prosper, at least some degree of labour mobility is necessary.

Albertans have every right to feel frustrated, but separation is not the answer. Rather, Canadians now need to commit to fixing the federation and ensuring shared respect among all provinces and citizens.