Kalshi bans former U.S. lawmaker George Santos for life after insider trading probe

The online prediction market platform Kalshi said Monday that it has permanently banned former U.S. Rep. George Santos after concluding the former Republican congressman likely engaged in insider trading when he bet against his attendance at the State of the Union address.

The company announced the ban after saying its compliance department had established reasonable cause to believe Santos engaged in insider trading over his attendance at the address, when he turned a $17,839 profit on his trading activity.

The convicted ex-congressman had repeatedly discussed his intention to attend the State of the Union, which came just four months after he was granted clemency by President Donald Trump in a fraud case that led to his expulsion from the U.S. House.

On the eve of Trump’s speech, Kalshi put the odds of Santos attending at close to 75 per cent.

Then, minutes into the speech, Santos posted on X that he had been waylaid at the airport. Immediately, several social media users accused him of running another scheme.

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Kalshi’s Compliance Department issued the lifetime ban, effective last Friday, against Santos, preventing him from accessing its platform directly or indirectly. The site also imposed a $71,356 penalty.

It said Santos was prohibited from trading in the market over whether he would attend the address because he was capable of influencing the outcome.

Yet, it added, he placed a series of large bets between Feb. 2 and Feb. 25 on whether he would attend the event and then began making public statements regarding whether he would attend in an effort to influence the price of the bets.

“Some of these included false or misleading statements,” the Compliance Department said as it described its findings.

An e-mail seeking comment from Santos on Monday was not immediately returned.

In March, Santos addressed complaints about his attendance at the State of the Union address on his podcast.

“I guess people lost money,” he said. “Some people made unexpected money. That’s to show you how fragile these markets are.”

Santos, who won office as a Republican after inventing a bogus persona as a Wall Street deal maker, was sentenced to seven years in prison after pleading guilty to fraud and identity theft in 2024. After serving just 84 days, he was ordered released by Trump, who called Santos a “rogue” but said he did not deserve a harsh sentence and should get credit for voting Republican.