AI unlikely to cause ‘job apocalypse,’ TD report says

A new report from TD Economics says fears of widespread job losses due to artificial intelligence are unlikely, saying the labour market is more poised for gradual change instead.

Economists Rannella Billy-Ochieng’ and Thomas Feltmate say that rapid advances in generative AI technology have led to concerns that automation could replace workers en masse.

But for a large-scale displacement to occur, the report says AI would have to be able to perform tasks autonomously, operate in an economically attractive way and be rapidly adopted across companies.

The economists say those conditions remain difficult for the technology to achieve and that while the “AI job apocalypse thesis” is a risk, it is not their base-case scenario.

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The report says there is little evidence of AI-related job disruptions in the economy, but the most visible signs are concentrated in industries that are more exposed to AI, such as data processing.

If the downside scenario were to occur, the economists say it could push the unemployment rate higher by 0.7 to 1.4 percentage points by the early 2030s.