Democrats’ control of U.S. Congress won’t give Canada an edge in trade talks

The U.S. trade war with Canada is far from over.

Although the Democrats are vowing to keep President Donald Trump in check after winning control of the House of Representatives and the Senate in the midterm elections, American protectionism isn’t going away.

Tariff-weary Canadians should be under no illusions about becoming indirect beneficiaries of that blue wave in the United States.

Opinion: With Democrats taking Congress, the trade war will continue and could even be worse

Democratic control of both chambers of Congress is unlikely to translate into a permanent détente in trade tensions with Ottawa – and not just because of that party’s own penchant for protectionism. (Let’s not forget that former Democratic presidents Barack Obama and Joe Biden created plenty of headaches with their respective “Buy American” policies.)

Mr. Trump may be a lame-duck Republican president, but he and his cabinet will continue to call the shots on Washington’s trade strategy, including with Canada. The Democrats’ midterm victories do not change the fact that Mr. Trump remains an undependable dealmaker-in-chief.

Prime Minister Mark Carney diplomatically described this vexing complication as he sought to manage expectations about the revival of trade talks.

”What is important for us is to reach an agreement that is in the best interests of Canadians,” Mr. Carney said Tuesday.

“Secondly, we want an agreement that includes elements that strengthen the incentives for all parties – especially the Americans – to abide by the deal. That is a challenge, but we are looking for ways to achieve all of this.”

It’s a challenge because Mr. Trump is reliably unreliable. Under his leadership, the U.S. has continued to squabble with a slew of major economies and failed to finalize many of its previously announced trade deals.

Last week, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer threatened to call off Washington’s tariff truce with the European Union on aircraft financing if Brussels withheld information about a US$3.4-billion loan extended to Airbus by the European Investment Bank.

Acting at the behest of U.S. plane maker Boeing Co., Mr. Greer raised a stink. “This situation ​injects substantial uncertainty into transatlantic trade in the aerospace sector,” he told Reuters in a statement.

It was only in July that the EU extended its aircraft truce with the U.S. after its Parliament approved a broader trade deal with Washington.

The trade pact introduced a 15-per-cent cap on U.S. tariffs for most EU goods. It was supposed to restore “stability and predictability” in the bilateral trading relationship. So much for that.

This aircraft fracas landed just months after Mr. Greer threatened transatlantic trade over the European Commission’s decision to fine Google €890-million, or roughly US$1-billion, for violating its Digital Markets Act.

The U.S. has also aired new grievances with South Korea despite reaching a trade agreement in November 2025.

Last month, Mr. Trump threatened Seoul after it disputed a central detail of his claims about South Korean investment in the Alaska LNG project.

“I didn’t jump the gun. ​I mean, they were there and they were represented. And let’s see, if they don’t want ​to do it, that’s okay with me. I’ll just charge them more,” Mr. Trump said at the time.

A South Korean official also challenged Mr. Trump’s social-media claim that the trade deal included US$8.4-billion “for an enhanced oil ​recovery project.”

The U.S., meanwhile, has yet to finalize its much-hyped trade deal with India after clashing with New Delhi over the nitty-gritty.

That brings us back to Canada.

Canadian auto sector sees new hope from U.S. Democrats’ midterm victory

Mr. Trump has threatened to double auto tariffs from 25 per cent to 50 per cent on Jan. 1 and to apply them to auto parts for the first time. His capriciousness on the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement on trade, which remains in effect, speaks to his reliability.

Although the Democrats’ midterm victories have raised hopes that tariff relief could be coming soon for Canada’s metals and auto sectors, they will only take control of Congress on Jan. 3. Even then, they have a duty to protect American interests, no matter how they feel about Mr. Trump’s trade war.

U.S. Senator-elect Abdul El-Sayed – a Democrat who will represent Michigan, home to Detroit’s Big Three automakers – told CNN on Thursday that Mr. Trump’s trade war is “insane.”

Trouble is, plenty of people on the left, including in Michigan, believe USMCA is a raw deal for American workers.

United Auto Workers, the union representing automobile, aerospace and agricultural implement workers, has criticized Mr. Trump’s trade action against Canada. But it has also called for a “comprehensive rewrite of the USMCA and other bad trade deals.”

Americans, regardless of partisan affiliation, will always protect their own.

Enough with the wishful thinking about the Democrats. Canadians must save themselves.