Staying in Canada is the best option for Alberta businesses

Avik Dey is president and CEO of Capital Power, an Edmonton-based power producer.

Business and capital rarely have the luxury of certainty to inform decision-making. Decisions are based on the best available information at the time, and we use our informed judgment to make the call. When there’s a lack of certainty, decisions are delayed or denied until better information comes forward.

The vote in Alberta and its lead-up have created uncertainty for Canada at a moment when opportunity is knocking like never before. Earlier this year, I was asked what Alberta separating from Canada would mean for my business. My belief is unequivocal: A united Alberta results in a stronger Canada.

Period.

There are nearly three million Albertans empowered to make the call as we go to the polls on Oct. 19 on 10 separate questions. Question 10 directly addresses Alberta sovereignty, asking whether Alberta should remain in Canada. Option 1 is yes. Option 2 is effectively no, triggering a future referendum on separation.

My answer is Option 1. We should remain in Canada.

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For me, this is not only a patriotic conviction but also good business judgment. We are on the doorstep of a generational opportunity to invest and build infrastructure in this country. We possess many of the things the world needs: energy, natural resources, critical minerals, human talent and strong institutions. Canada is exceptionally well-situated to act on these advantages, and we need to do so as a united country.

The prospect of a referendum on separation causes the kind of uncertainty that derails opportunity. As the Calgary Chamber of Commerce’s open letter, “Alberta’s future is stronger in Canada” noted, separation could make it harder to attract the workers needed to advance major capital projects. At a time when Alberta is attracting significant interest from new industries, our focus should be on turning this interest into prosperity, not introducing uncertainty that puts it at risk.

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As a Calgarian, I understand the legitimate frustrations Albertans have with Ottawa, but I also believe voting to stay does not mean agreeing with every federal policy or giving up on our desire for better market access, clearer regulation and proper recognition of Alberta’s contribution to the country.

This is not either-or.

Disagreements are part of federalism, just as they are part of business, politics and all human relationships. Alberta can push hard for a better deal while preserving the markets, institutions and relationships that have contributed to its success. Its economy has always depended on access to markets beyond the province. Its businesses rely on customers, workers, supply chains, financing and infrastructure across Canada and globally.

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The Calgary Chamber of Commerce’s analysis finds that nearly one in three Alberta workers, roughly 900,000 people, work in sectors significantly exposed to trade. It also estimates that a Brexit-scale decline in investment could cost Alberta as much as $15-billion in a single year.

Investors do not need to know the details of how separation would play out to respond to the signals it sends and hesitate about moving forward or actively looking elsewhere.

If there are still unanswered questions about taxes, regulation, currency, debt, pensions, market access or the movement of goods and people, some will wait and ask for a higher return, but most will simply go elsewhere. This applies across sectors and for businesses of all sizes. Capital and commerce are not sentimental: They’re all looking for stability.

It’s also worth remembering that the separatist debate we’re talking about today is rooted in a very different political moment. For many, it grew out of years of frustration with Ottawa and a sense that the country was moving in the wrong direction. But these debates take time, and in that time, the country and the geopolitical landscape we’re operating in have changed.

Canada cannot afford to spend the next decade reliving the last one.

The question we should focus on now is what kind of country we need for the years and generations ahead. And in answering that, we need to remember that we are responsible for the country we leave behind. In a world where economic strength increasingly depends on scale, secure supply chains, access to markets and strong alliances, making Canada smaller would leave all of us with less leverage, not more.

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This is also a time when cooperation between Alberta and Ottawa is beginning to produce real results. On Oct. 1, Pacific Link was formally designated a project of national interest, which means that under the Building Canada Act, it is fast-tracked for an accelerated federal approval process.

Similarly, recent work has focused on diversifying energy markets, advancing carbon capture and developing additional major infrastructure projects of national benefit.

We’re experiencing a promising moment that requires unity to turn cooperation into actual projects that yield construction, jobs, exports and long-term Indigenous ownership and participation. The question of separation does the exact opposite.

Canada is finally moving. Alberta should help lead, as it always has.

A few weeks ago, I signed the Calgary Chamber’s CEO letter on this issue because I thought it was important to be clear about where I stand.

I know many business leaders share these concerns because I hear them in private conversations. I understand the instinct to stay out of politics, but this isn’t an abstract debate. The outcome will affect employees, investors, customers and communities across the province.

That’s why I’d encourage all my fellow leaders to add their voices to the conversation. We often ask governments for clarity and certainty, and we can offer the same in return. Alberta’s future is worth speaking up for.

On Oct. 19, Albertans should choose to remain in Canada.

On Oct. 20, we should return to the work of improving Alberta and Canada: building infrastructure, opening markets, insisting on predictable policy and ensuring Alberta receives the recognition its contribution deserves.

Alberta’s future is not outside Canada. It is leading Canada.