Slew of draft picks may mean squat for downtrodden Leafs

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It is no more than guesswork — what the Maple Leafs managed to do at the trade deadline, a whole lot of blue and white noise to gush over for gullible fans but not for anyone with any kind of hockey sophistication.

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The Leafs today are the proud owners of a first-round pick, a second-round pick, a third-round pick, a fourth-round pick and a fifth-round pick over the next two NHL drafts, all of that to show for forwards Nicolas Roy, Bobby McMann and Scott Laughton.

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That’s a haul, fan and talk show hosts will tell you.

The Leafs traded unproductive centre Roy and got a conditional 2027 first-round draft choice and another pick of less importance from the Colorado Avalanche.

They then traded promising winger McMann, heading to free agency, for a 2027 second-round pick and another draft choice from the Seattle Kraken.

Then, late in the day, they traded Laughton, who cost a first-round pick last year, to Los Angeles for a third-round this year. Great asset management that isn’t.

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At first glance, picking up all those picks for the departing trio is a big win for the Leafs. With deeper analysis, not so much.

Begin with the premise that not all first-round draft picks are created equal. Now understand this: The Colorado first-rounder is quite likely to be a late draft choice next season, not this season, as the Avalanche is among the best teams in hockey.

What is a late first round pick worth one year from now?

Draft analysis

I did a 10-year breakdown of the value of late first-round draft picks in the NHL. From 2010 to 2019 — leaving enough time to be playing in the NHL by 2026 — 100 players were selected with the last 10 choices in the first round of the draft.

Exactly five of those players — David Pastrnak, Jake Oettinger, Tage Thompson, Adrian Kempe and Evgeny Kuznetsov — went on to be stars. That’s a 5% chance of getting a great player for Roy. A 95% chance of not getting one.

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Of the 100 players selected over 10 years, 25 of them were players who either didn’t play at all or played just a handful of NHL games.

In that group of late first-rounders, 25% of those chosen wound up as upper echelon NHL players.

Half of the players selected — 50 of 100 — became average NHL players, players not dissimilar from Nicolas Roy.

So it’s quite possible that the Leafs have traded Roy to Colorado for a player just like Roy. That’s your first-round pick today.

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Help needed now

With one proviso: The first-round pick from Colorado is for the 2027 draft. The average late-round pick takes two full seasons of development to make the NHL. So the odds are whoever the Leafs get from the Roy pick will be someone who plays on their team in 2029-30.

This is 2026: The Leafs need help now.

Auston Matthews will likely be gone from Toronto by the time this draft pick suits up. Leafs are in the challenging position where they have two upper echelon forwards in captain Matthews and William Nylander — assuming they play like upper echelon forwards — but may not have any draft picks to add to their lineup before Matthews’ contract expires in Toronto.

Which puts the Leafs where? That’s the question for CEO Keith Pelley, for general manager Brad Treliving, and for coach Craig Berube, who really can’t be kept beyond this season.

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If Treliving wants to maintain Berube as coach, say goodbye to him too. The Leafs need a team president with deep background in hockey. They had that in Brendan Shanahan. They don’t have that now.

This is their worst season in a decade.

Roster gets thinner

Their roster without Roy, McMann and Laughton is much thinner today than it was yesterday. With younger, faster teams such as Detroit, Montreal and Ottawa in their division, the Leafs have a big job ahead to get back to being competitive.

Treliving had to add to the bare Leafs cupboards the past two days and he did that. But it’s entirely possible that he will be gone as general manager before the Leafs’ first-round pick from Colorado joins Toronto on the ice.

The deal for McMann is disappointing on two fronts. One, all they got was a second-round pick and another throw-in choice for a 20-goal scorer. Signing him might have been a better move than trading him, if they could have got that done.

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The second-round draft pick they got from Seattle isn’t for this year’s draft either. It’s for 2027.

Second-round picks sound enticing to hockey fans and some league executives. The truth though: Second-round draft picks are the most overrated, overvalued selection in hockey.

Another 10-year breakdown determined that the value of second-round draft picks is not encouraging. In a decade of second-round picks, 309 players were chosen — and just four of them went on to become stars. And that may be stretching the definition of stars.

Nikita Kucherov and Sebastian Aho are absolute stars. Alex DeBrincat and Jason Robertson are the other two. That’s four picks out of 309, a 1.2% chance of hitting it big.

The odds of getting an upper roster player in the second round are 26.8%. The odds of getting a bottom half of the roster player in the second round: 29.7%.

And the odds of getting someone from the second round who won’t make it: 42%.

The numbers become even more discouraging in the third round.

The Leafs have about 18 players from their current roster signed for next season. And this team is already near the bottom of the Eastern Conference.

And now they wait.

To see what the picks will become in 2029-2030.

To see who is in charge.

To see who will coach.

There is much to be determined here. Little of it seems encouraging today.

ssimmons@postmedia.com

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